The Trouble with Teasers<\/b><\/p>\n
Generally speaking, betting teasers is not a good value proposition.*<\/p>\n
A teaser is a specific type of bet where you get extra points, but must pay extra odds.<\/p>\n
The most popular teaser is in the NFL, where a 2 team, 6 pt teaser requires the same -110 odds, or VIG as a normal bet.\u00a0 But, 2 differences:<\/p>\n
1: you must wager on and win 2 games<\/p>\n
2: you get 6 extra points in each game.\u00a0 For example, you can bet a 12.5 pt NFL fave and tease them down to 6.5 pts.\u00a0 You can also bet an underdog and get an extra 6 pts, getting +10 instead of +4.<\/p>\n
You can bet bigger teasers with more teams and still risk 110 to win 100, for example:<\/p>\n
-a 4 team, 11.5 pt teaser<\/p>\n
-a 6 team, 13.5 pt teaser<\/p>\n
In every case, you must win all the games to win the teaser, but winning each game gets easier because you get extra points.<\/p>\n
How often do you need to win each game to make the teaser profitable?<\/p>\n
Paying -110 juice, you must win 53% of general bets to turn a small profit over time.**<\/p>\n
2 team 6 pt teaser \u2013 need to win EACH game 73% of the time**<\/p>\n
4 team 11.5 pt teaser \u2013 need to win EACH game 85% of the time<\/p>\n
6 team 13.5 pt teaser \u2013 need to win EACH game 90% of the time<\/p>\n
What is the Problem with betting Teasers:<\/strong><\/p>\n Winning multiple games is tough and you are NOT being compensated for the risk.\u00a0 Getting 6 extra points is less than 1 TD, and you need to win 73% of the time to turn a small profit.\u00a0 73% is hard to pull off with just an extra 6 points.<\/p>\n Upsets happen.\u00a0 Guys loving teasing big 6-10 pt faves down figuring they can\u2019t lose.\u00a0 Oh really?\u00a0 In the parity league that is the NFL.\u00a0 Consider these results from the 1st<\/sup>\u00a07 wks of the 2013 season:<\/p>\n Wk 1 \u2013 Steelers lost to Titans as a 6.5 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 2 \u2013 Eagles lost to Chargers as a 7 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 3 \u2013 Vikings lost to Browns as a 7 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 3 \u2013 49ers lost to Colts as 10 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 5 \u2013 Falcons lost to Jets as a 9.5 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 6 \u2013 Texans lost to Rams as a 7.5 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 7 \u2013 Dolphins lost to Bills as a 7 pt fave<\/p>\n Wk 7 \u2013 Broncos lost to Colts as a 6.5 pt fave<\/p>\n In the first 7 wks of the 2013 NFL season, 8 times, a 6.5+ pt favourite lost outright.\u00a0 These teams lose more often than people realize.<\/p>\n If you look at the money-line (odds of a team winning), it illustrates the weakness of the teaser bet.\u00a0 A 6 pt favourite\u2019s chances of winning are usually -240 with +220 for the dog, that works out to -230 as a no juice line, or 230\/330 = 70%, so a 6 pt favourite is implied to win only 70% of the time, but teasers require 73% win rates for 6pts which is bad value*.<\/p>\n So why do guys bet teasers?\u00a0 Because they are teased or tricked into it. \u00a0 They make you feel like you are making a smart bet.\u00a0 You will usually win one of the two legs of the teaser because you are winning around 70% of the time.\u00a0 When you lose, you will complain about your bad beat, asking how (the Pats could lose, Rodgers could blow it at home, etc) the favourite lost.\u00a0 You feel close to winning and it teases you into making bad teaser bets again.\u00a0 AVOID IT!!!<\/p>\n <\/p>\n NOTE: this article is applicable to ALL SPORTS. \u00a0 Getting extra points isn\u2019t usually worth the extra juice you have to lay<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n *A very specific teaser can be profitable.\u00a0 It involves the following characteristics:<\/p>\n 1: Betting a 2 team 6 pt teaser laying only -110, therefore each side needs to win 73% of the time to turn a profit.<\/p>\n 2: Each of the 2 teaser bets crosses\u00a0BOTH the 3 AND 7 (i.e., betting an 8.5 pt fave teased down to 2.5 pts OR a 1.5 pt dog getting 7.5 pts).\u00a0 These 2 key numbers come in 13% combined (along with approx. 2.5% for 2\/8, 4, 5, and 6), so 23% on top of 50% (normal cover of spread %) is 73% required to cover VIG.<\/p>\n 3: Ideally extra favourable conditions \u2013 including low totals (o\/u) in the game valuing each point more, or, not betting overvalued big rd faves and teasing them down (i.e., avoid teasing GB down from 8.5 to 2.5 at Vikings wk 8).<\/p>\n **Winning each game 73%, therefore .73 * .73 = 53% which covers juice (and turns a minor profit), specifically, you win $100 53% and lose $110 47%, so .53 * 100 + .47 * -110 = 1.3% profit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Trouble with Teasers Generally speaking, betting teasers is not a good value proposition.* A teaser is a specific type of bet where you get extra points, but must pay extra odds. The most popular teaser is in the NFL, where a 2 team, 6 pt teaser requires the same -110 odds, or VIG as …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":82,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-specific-sports-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions\/83"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}