{"id":76,"date":"2023-03-15T09:00:41","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T09:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/?p=76"},"modified":"2023-03-17T20:10:13","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T20:10:13","slug":"when-hedging-your-bets-makes-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/when-hedging-your-bets-makes-sense\/","title":{"rendered":"When Hedging Your Bets Makes Sense"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>HEDGING YOUR BETS \u2013 3 TIMES TO DO IT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><i>Note: This is part 2.\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n<p>I previously explained why\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220627214355\/http:\/\/sharpedgepicks.com\/hedging-your-nfl-bets-bad-financial-management\/\">hedging your bets is usually a bad financial decision<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>You are usually paying vig\/juice\/commission twice and are often getting the inferior side of the bet.\u00a0 In the long run you are paying extra fees for no reason.<\/p>\n<p>However, there are 3 situations where hedging your NFL (or any sports) bet may make sense:<i>\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n<p>1 \u2013 You bet the Seahawks in September 2014 at 10-1 to win the Super Bowl.\u00a0 You bet 1k and stand to cash $10k.\u00a0 They are now pick\u2019em in the Super Bowl, so you can lock in $4750 (half, less VIG). \u00a0 Why lock in this profit?\u00a0 ONLY if your financial situation changed over the course of the NFL season.\u00a0 This could occur for a few reasons:<\/p>\n<p>A: a degenerate you know who owed you 4k failed to pay and you are tight for cash<\/p>\n<p>B: your girlfriend got pregnant and you \u2018decided\u2019 to start a family<\/p>\n<p>C: you went through a horrible (yet inevitable) losing streak and are bankroll tight.<\/p>\n<p>Paying the fees for financial stability may make sense.<\/p>\n<p>2 \u2013 Your in Las Vegas during the NFL season and decide to bet 5 different parlay cards, all 5 cards are 5 teamers and all end with the a bet on MNF. \u00a0You box the 1<sup>st<\/sup>\u00a05 teams meaning each of your 5 cards has 5 of the 6 teams on it and the Lions, so if any one of the 5 loses you are alive for a 5 teamer on MNF.\u00a0 The parlay cards all pay 20-1 and you invest $250, $50 on each card, hoping to have $1k ($50 bet x 20-1, 1 card alive) going on MNF for the end of your Vegas trip, figuring winning 4 of 5 NFL games ATS (against the spread) is tough.\u00a0 Lo and behold, they all win so you have a much higher amount, $5k going on MNF.\u00a0 Betting a thousand or so the other way, given the unusual circumstances that you won all 5 (5x easier to win 4 of 5), may make sense to reduce volatility, but isn\u2019t optimal.<\/p>\n<p>3 \u2013 You bet an NFL team +3.5 and they are up 14-7 at the half and are +5 in the 2<sup>nd<\/sup>\u00a0half.\u00a0 But, you watched the game and think they are lucky to be up \u2013 maybe tipped balls, turnovers, special teams, etc.\u00a0 If the game circumstances have changed and you can unwind your bet with a potential premium, it may make sense to hedge.<\/p>\n<p>While hedging usually costs you money, the specific situations described above (or similar ones that make sense to you) may be notable exceptions.\u00a0 Drastically reducing volatility when bankroll management is an issue or when game circumstances change are situations where hedging may make sense.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"tmnf_excerpt\"><p>HEDGING YOUR BETS \u2013 3 TIMES TO DO IT Note: This is part 2.\u00a0 I previously explained why\u00a0hedging your bets is usually a bad financial decision. You are usually paying vig\/juice\/commission twice and are often getting the inferior side of the bet.\u00a0 In the long run you are paying extra fees for no reason. However, &hellip;<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":77,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-general-advice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76\/revisions\/78"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}