{"id":71,"date":"2023-03-15T08:53:52","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T08:53:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/?p=71"},"modified":"2023-03-18T06:09:18","modified_gmt":"2023-03-18T06:09:18","slug":"hedging-your-bets-bad-financial-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/hedging-your-bets-bad-financial-management\/","title":{"rendered":"Hedging your Bets \u2013 Bad Financial Management"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note: This is part 1.\u00a0Part 2 explores 3 specific situations where hedging may be prudent\u00a0<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n

We are all happy to be in the following 2 situations:<\/p>\n

1: We bet an NFL team +3.5 and they are up 17-3 at the half and are 6 point underdogs in the second half.<\/p>\n

2: We bet a 3 team parlay, won the 1st two and have a nice payday due on the 3rd during MNF.<\/p>\n

Do we hedge our bets?\u00a0 Do we bet the other side?\u00a0 Do we ensure a profit and take money off the table?<\/p>\n

DO WE HEDGE OUR NFL BETS?<\/p>\n

Generally speaking the answer is NO!!!!!<\/p>\n

Why?\u00a0 Why is hedging a bad idea?\u00a0 Why is \u2018protecting your investment\u2019 and securing a profit the irresponsible financial decision?<\/p>\n

For starters, when you hedge, you are making another bet and incurring additional juice\/vig\/commission.\u00a0 All things being equal, making a bet costs you money, unless you have an edge.\u00a0 What is your edge here?\u00a0 Nothing.\u00a0 Just you trying to lock in a profit.<\/p>\n

In situation1, the hedge makes even less sense for 2 reasons:<\/p>\n

i \u2013 you liked the NFL dog and they looked great in the 1st<\/sup>\u00a0half.\u00a0 Why bet against them in the 2nd<\/sup>\u00a0half?\u00a0 Only because of your first half bet.\u00a0 Don\u2019t let emotions get in the way.\u00a0 Ride out your good, strong bet.<\/p>\n

ii \u2013 who is most likely betting the 2nd<\/sup>\u00a0half? \u00a0Dog bettors looking to secure a profit.\u00a0 The dog crushed in the 1st<\/sup>\u00a0half and should be closer to pick\u2019em in the 2nd<\/sup>\u00a0half, but are 6 pt dogs because bettors like you who are \u2018money managing\u2019 are hedging and betting the other side.\u00a0 The value, if anything, is betting the dog to continue playing strong.<\/p>\n

In situation 2, the hedge makes even less sense because it\u2019s a brand new game.\u00a0 Why bet a 3 team parlay paying 6-1 on your money if you plan to hedge off the 3rd<\/sup>\u00a0game?\u00a0 Why pay Vig twice to in essence cancel your original bet?\u00a0 You are better off just betting a 2 team parlay (or the 1st<\/sup>\u00a02 bets separately), and then, if you like the MNF bet on Monday afternoon, betting it for a small amount.\u00a0 Do not bet a parlay only to hedge the 2nd<\/sup>\u00a0or 3rd<\/sup>\u00a0leg.\u00a0 You are simply paying juice twice.\u00a0 Bet each separately, or just wager on your best bet.<\/p>\n

The Sharp Approach<\/a>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0understands hedging for the sake of financial management on a weekly NFL basis is just paying extra commissions (and sometimes getting the worst of the line).\u00a0 It should be avoided.\u00a0 You will be tempted.\u00a0 Your friends will explain it is smart to secure a profit and lock in the money.\u00a0 They will be happy because they won and will ignore that they won 40 cents on the dollar vs 90.\u00a0 But you are paying a steep price for hedging.\u00a0 When you are losing a bet by 2 tds at the half you are stuck with an ugly bet.\u00a0 You need to ride your strong bets and fully capitalize.\u00a0 Hedging weekly will cut into your profits and likely make you a losing bettor long term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note: This is part 1.\u00a0Part 2 explores 3 specific situations where hedging may be prudent\u00a0 We are all happy to be in the following 2 situations: 1: We bet an NFL team +3.5 and they are up 17-3 at the half and are 6 point underdogs in the second half. 2: We bet a 3 …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":72,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-general-advice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71\/revisions\/73"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}