Looking at \u2018close\u2019 games, where the home team is favored between 1-5.5 points against the spread, there have been 333 games over 4 years (2008-11) and the ROAD team has covered over 54% of the time, more than often enough to beat VIG and turn a 1.5-2% profit margin on top of that (strong margin for a sports gambler).<\/p>\n
Why? It use to be that betting small home favourites were good value in the NFL due to home field advantage.\u00a0 But with instant replay negating the referees homer bias and technology improving travelling, home field advantage is shrinking. \u00a0Teams going on the road use to deal with hostile crowds, crummy travel conditions, and worst of all, referees cheering for the home team (often looking similar to Leslie Nielsen in Naked Gun). \u00a0This is no longer the case.<\/p>\n
Few crowds are super loud and hostile (even Seattle, which is, recently hired undercover cops dressed in\u00a0opposing team gear to ensure all fans are treated with respect). \u00a0Travelling is a pleasure \u2013 cushy 1st class airline seats, 5 star hotels, chefs travelling with teams \u2013 better then the headaches of young children at home. \u00a0The affect of instant reply is probably the biggest difference maker. \u00a0Zebras use to go out of there way to give the home team every edge possible, but that is getting tough. \u00a0Instant replay ensures big calls must be correct (or overturned) and the mere existence of it ensure referees attempt to stay honest. \u00a0Add it all up and going on the road in the NFL is not as daunting as it use to be.<\/p>\n
VALUE TO THE SHARP EDGE BETTOR \u2013\u00a0<\/strong>home teams are usually given 3 pts in pick\u2019em or close games, just for being at home. \u00a0That appears to be too high in the current NFL. \u00a0Therefore, the value is leaning towards the road teams in close matchups as home teams are overvalued by Las Vegas sportsbooks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Looking at \u2018close\u2019 games, where the home team is favored between 1-5.5 points against the spread, there have been 333 games over 4 years (2008-11) and the ROAD team has covered over 54% of the time, more than often enough to beat VIG and turn a 1.5-2% profit margin on top of that (strong margin …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-specific-sports-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64\/revisions\/66"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}