5\u00d72 Commandments of Successful Sports Betting.<\/a><\/p>\n1a: Thou shall focus on winning money, not games<\/p>\n
1b: Thou shall focus on the long term<\/p>\n
2a: Thou shall see what your friends are doing and do the opposite<\/p>\n
2b: Thou shall read the \u2018touts\u2019 and do the opposite<\/p>\n
3a: Thou shall find the best\/safest places to bet<\/p>\n
3b: Thou shall shop for the best lines<\/p>\n
4a: Thou shall honour your bankroll and manage it<\/p>\n
4b: Thou shall never steam<\/p>\n
5a: Thou shall not get juiced to death<\/p>\n
5b: Thou shall avoid uncorrelated parlays and most hedging<\/p>\n
To get to the next level, as a professional, you must also follow the 6th Commandment of Sports Betting:<\/p>\n
a \u2013 set your own line first<\/p>\n
b \u2013 track line movements<\/p>\n
6a: Setting your own line first.\u00a0 Using the NFL as an example, as week 9 2013 is ending, you look at the week 10 schedule and see the list of games and make up your own point spreads.\u00a0 You see the 49ers are hosting the red hot Panthers.\u00a0 You know the 49ers are rated a little better and are at home, but are impressed with Carolina\u2019s +\/-.\u00a0 You think the 49ers should be a 4.5 pt fave.<\/p>\n
You then look at the lines and see the 49ers are a 6-6.5 pt fave.\u00a0 This implies value with the underdog Panthers in your eyes as you are getting an extra 1.5 pts*<\/p>\n
6b: Track line movements.\u00a0 Note the opening lines and track line movement through the week.\u00a0 \u2018Public\u2019 teams, including any team from NY, Cowboys\/Patriots in NFL, etc, tend to get a lot of action from casual players.\u00a0 When looking to bet against these teams, waiting until the last moment usually provides additional value.<\/p>\n
Combining commandments 6a and 6b: You thought the Panthers were good value at 6-6.5.\u00a0 Now what?\u00a0 Bet it or wait?\u00a0 Generally the public bets the fave throughout the week, but since the line is pretty big and Carolina is pretty good, the line could move against you.\u00a0 Betting a small amount on Carolina plus 6.5 (line shopping) is likely most prudent.\u00a0 If it moves to 7, bet more later in the week.\u00a0 If it moves to below 6, don\u2019t bet more and be happy you got some good value action.<\/p>\n
By making your own lines and tracking movement, you will get additional value, on the strong underdogs you should be betting anyways.<\/p>\n
*Generally speaking, each NFL pt is worth about 2-3% (double that for pt 7 and triple for pt 3), so getting 4.5 instead of 3.5 is worth 2-3% and covers VIG\/juice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Sharp Approach \u2013 Setting Your Own Point Spread and Tracking Line Movements During the Week To break even (and possibly turn a small profit) as a sports bettor you must at least follow my\u00a05\u00d72 Commandments of Successful Sports Betting. 1a: Thou shall focus on winning money, not games 1b: Thou shall focus on the …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-general-advice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52\/revisions\/54"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}