{"id":46,"date":"2023-03-15T08:30:27","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T08:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/?p=46"},"modified":"2023-03-18T06:22:28","modified_gmt":"2023-03-18T06:22:28","slug":"sportsbetting-for-a-living-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/sportsbetting-for-a-living-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Sportsbetting for a Living \u2013 Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sportsbetting for a Living: Fine Line Between \u2018Professional\u2019 and Tourist<\/b><\/p>\n

They say sports gambling is a very tough way to make an easy living.\u00a0 It is so true.\u00a0 In fact, due to volatility in betting, it could take years to determine if you are indeed a \u2018professional\u2019 or have a significant edge.\u00a0 The example below illustrates the point.<\/p>\n

Volatility: A Concrete Example<\/b><\/p>\n

Assume:<\/p>\n

-you make 1 strong bet per day, 365 days per yr, risking $5k per bet.<\/p>\n

-you follow the \u2018Sharp Approach<\/a>\u2019\u00a0betting underdogs, getting \u00a0an average of +150 or 3-2 odds, paying you $7500 of profit when you win your $5k bets.\u00a0 +150 odds generally equates to about a 4 pt underdog in basketball or football and the average underdog in baseball or hockey.<\/p>\n

Win Rate Assumptions<\/p>\n

Win 40% This is the break even rate with juice, winning 40% at 3\/2 odds and losing 60%.\u00a0 This win rate allows you to breakeven including vig, difficult, but possible for a casual gambler focused on underdogs.<\/p>\n

Win 41.4%.\u00a0 This assumes earning a 3.4% profit margin \u2013 a strong figure by any standard for a \u2018professional\u2019 sports gambler.\u00a0 You can accomplish this figure by staying focused on solid value and can usually find 5-10 bets per week this strong.<\/p>\n

Win 38.5%.\u00a0 This is the average win rate if you were betting under an efficient market system.\u00a0 +150 payoff, with juice corresponds with -170 on the favorite.\u00a0 Using an average of 160 ((150 + 170)\/2), you should win 100\/(100+160) = 38.5% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\n

EV*<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Wins**<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

wins***<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

PROFIT****<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

break even<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

146<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,095,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Pro<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.414<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,132,500<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$62,500<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Avg Loser<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.385<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

141<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,057,500<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

($62,500)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n\n

EV<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Losses<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

losses**<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Margin*****<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

break even<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-219<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1,095,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.00%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Pro<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.586<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-214<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1,070,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.42%<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Avg Loser<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.615<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-224<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1,120,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.42%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

*The \u2018professional\u2019 has an expected win rate of 41.4% and therefore a corresponding loss % of 1-.414 = .586<\/p>\n

** Winning 41.4% of the time, on 365 bets gives the \u2018professional\u2019 a 151 win expected value (and hence 365-151 = 214 expected loses)<\/p>\n

*** Winning 151 bets at $7500 per bet is $1.1325 million, and losing 214 bets at $5k per bet is $1.07 mil.<\/p>\n

**** $1.1325 mil of wins minus 1.07 mil of losses equals $62.5k of sports betting expected profit for the year<\/p>\n

***** betting $5k daily for 365 days is a total amount bet of $1.825 mil and $62.5k of profit is the 3.4% margin described above.\u00a0 This profit margin would be consistent with a very accomplished \u2018professional\u2019 sports bettor.<\/p>\n

CONCLUSION: Over a whole year of betting small to medium sized underdogs, daily, winning 146 games allows you to breaks even, 141 and you\u2019re an average loser, and 151 makes you a STRONG PRO with a 3.4% profit margin.\u00a0 \u00a0Annually, there is ONLY A 10 GAME GAP BETWEEN TOURIST AND \u2018PROFESSIONAL\u2019 = VERY FINE LINE!!<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sportsbetting for a Living: Fine Line Between \u2018Professional\u2019 and Tourist They say sports gambling is a very tough way to make an easy living.\u00a0 It is so true.\u00a0 In fact, due to volatility in betting, it could take years to determine if you are indeed a \u2018professional\u2019 or have a significant edge.\u00a0 The example below …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-general-advice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46\/revisions\/48"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}