Bet on Baseball?<\/b><\/p>\n
For some, baseball is the BEST thing to bet on \u2013 real value. \u00a0 For some gamblers it is a disaster. \u00a0 Try to answer the following questions honestly to determine if baseball is for you. \u00a0Should you STAY and bet? \u00a0Or, GO, and wait for September and the NFL?<\/p>\n
GO: SEE YOU IN SEPTEMBER<\/p>\n
If you like betting favourites, baseball is even worse for you than other sports.\u00a0 The Spurs, Blackhawks, and Patriots win 70%+ of their games.\u00a0 The Cubs\/pick the best team in baseball tend to win under 60%.\u00a0 If you go 97-65, it\u2019s a winning % just below 60% and an awesome MLB record.<\/p>\n
If you lack discipline, baseball will destroy you.\u00a0 There are 10-15 games on per night, staggered time zones, day games\/night games (especially on weekends), etc.\u00a0 If when you lose, you press to get even, baseball can finish you off in days.\u00a0 If you are desperate during NFL season you only have Sunday Night Football, then MNF to get even, then a few days off.\u00a0 Baseball offers 400 games each month, almost twice as many as the whole NFL season.<\/p>\n
STAY: BET ON BASEBALL<\/p>\n
Baseball has 4 factors that make it the most attractive sport to bet:<\/p>\n
1: Lower \u2018juice\u2019<\/p>\n
Of the four major sports, baseball tends to charge the least \u2018juice\u2019 or \u2018sportsbook\u2019 commission.\u00a0\u00a0 \u2018Sportsbooks\u2019 do this because they can make up the difference on volume (see point 2 below) and to draw people to the casino in the quiet summer when other sports aren\u2019t being played.\u00a0 The NFL\/NBA\/NHL generally use 10 cent lines (each team is -110 or you need to risk an average of $110 to win $100).\u00a0 Many sportsbooks or \u2018bookies\u2019 will offer 5 cent baseball lines (each team is -105 or you need to risk an average of $105 to win $100).\u00a0 (Note: when one team is a small favourite, they will be -120\/+110, but total juice is still 10 cents, averaging 5 cents per line, or half juice).\u00a0 Paying half the commission plays a major difference to the bottom line.\u00a0 Assuming you bet 50 baseball games at pick-em and go 26-24.\u00a0\u00a0 Paying -110 \u2018juice\u2019 translates into 1.1 on your 24 losses (see \u2018convert odds<\/a>\u2019 for details).\u00a0 24 x 1.1 = 26.4, compared to 26 wins, and you LOSE .4 units.\u00a0\u00a0 Paying -105 \u2018juice\u2019 translates into 1.05 on your losses.\u00a0 24 x 1.05 = 25.2, compared to 26 wins, and you WIN .8 units.\u00a0 This is the difference between WINNING (.8 units) and LOSING (.4 units).\u00a0 This is a spread of 1.2 unit (.8 + .4), on 50 units risked \u2013 nice bonus for the better \u2018juice\u2019 advantage making a 26-24 record into a profitable one, net of \u2018juice\u2019.<\/p>\n 2: Plenty to choose from<\/p>\n Each baseball team plays 81 regular season home games.\u00a0 There are 30 teams.\u00a0 That means 2430 (81\u00d730) regular season games to choose from.\u00a0 If you are disciplined, you have 2430 regular season betting opportunities.\u00a0\u00a0But follow the \u20185\u00d72 Commandments\u2019 and stay disciplined<\/a>.\u00a0 Do NOT bet 7 games per night and get juiced to death.<\/p>\n 3: Numbers game<\/p>\n Like point 2, lots of games leads to lots of data, to play with\/manipulate, or study.\u00a0 If it is September and the Patriots have won 22 of their last 24 games at home, that spans 3 seasons and the data is no longer super relevant.\u00a0 If the Washington Nationals have won 22 of their last 24 at home in early September, it is over a 6 wk span since the all-star break and indicative of a very hot team.\u00a0 When an NFL team has played a month of the season (5 games) and scored 150 pts, averaging 30 points, it may be a fluke (int for tds, big plays, etc).\u00a0 When an MLB team has scored 180 runs in the 1st<\/sup>\u00a0month of the season (30 games), they are averaging 6 runs per game over a decent time span (or \u2018n\u2019 for statisticians) and likely indicative of a high scoring team (conducive to betting overs unless the market line adjusts).<\/p>\n 4: Certain dogs can have \u2018positive expected value\u2019<\/p>\n Finding a winning formula in any sport is very difficult, but baseball makes it more possible.\u00a0 Betting ugly dogs especially at home, against big name teams can be profitable. \u00a0 The RedSox and Cubs tend to be over-bet, especially on the road against small market division rivals, teams like the Rays and Brewers. \u00a0 If you can stomach the \u2018unpopular\u2019 side, TB and Mil at home tend to be value. \u00a0 This is explained in \u2018The Sharp Approach<\/a>\u2018<\/p>\n CONCLUSION: KNOW YOURSELF<\/p>\n If you bet on the favourites, wait until the NFL season where it will cost you a few points, not baseball where betting teams like the Yankees & Dodgers will destroy you.<\/p>\n If you chase to get even, one August night can ruin your bankroll.<\/p>\n But, if you want to logically and methodically pick situations with a \u2018positive expected value\u2019, spend the summer doing math and betting baseball.<\/p>\n If you want to take advantage of low juice and unpopular teams, spend the summer betting the Marlins at home to the Nationals or even uglier, the Padres vs the Dodgers, and enjoy betting baseball.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bet on Baseball? For some, baseball is the BEST thing to bet on \u2013 real value. \u00a0 For some gamblers it is a disaster. \u00a0 Try to answer the following questions honestly to determine if baseball is for you. \u00a0Should you STAY and bet? \u00a0Or, GO, and wait for September and the NFL? GO: SEE …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting-concepts","category-industry-trends"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41\/revisions\/43"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}