{"id":32,"date":"2023-03-15T08:19:46","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T08:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/?p=32"},"modified":"2023-03-18T06:26:13","modified_gmt":"2023-03-18T06:26:13","slug":"blue-jays-awful-1-run-record-is-not-bad-luck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/blue-jays-awful-1-run-record-is-not-bad-luck\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays AWFUL 1-run record is NOT bad luck"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bill James is WRONG. \u00a0 MLB stats geeks are WRONG. \u00a0 Run differential does NOT always predict baseball success over time.<\/p>\n

Consensus in MLB right now is that if your run differential is very positive (you score a lot more runs than you give up), you are a strong team that will win long term. \u00a01 run losses are mostly bad luck that evens out over time.<\/p>\n

That is INCORRECT and the Blue Jays go as close to proving it as mathematically possible. \u00a0 The Blue Jays were built by JP (and then AA) to hit homers. \u00a0 They bludgeon opponents one night 8-4, then \u00a0lose a close 3-2 game the next because they don\u2019t have executers (bunters, stolen base threats, etc). \u00a0 For almost 2 decades, they have been a mediocre team with a strong run differential. \u00a0Proof is in the data below.\u00a0 In the 14+ years since JP assumed control, the Blue Jays are a respectable 849-786 in games decided by 2+ runs.\u00a0 They\u2019ve been mediocre during that stretch, yet winning \u2018real\u2019 (non 1 run games), at a 52% clip is pretty impressive (avg 84-78 per year AND a strong plus run differential).<\/p>\n

HOWEVER, the Blue Jays are an embarrassingly horrid 282-350 in 1 run games.\u00a0 That\u2019s almost 4 seasons of data points and they win 44% of 1 run games \u2013 equivalent to going 72-90 EVERY YEAR \u2013 which is horrendous. \u00a0 IF a baseball team went 72-90 for 4 straight years and every year management\/media that owns the team, simply said they were \u2018unlucky\u2019, you\u2019d dismiss them as crazy \u2013 that is the Blue Jays and what they\u2019ve been doing.<\/p>\n

The data also shows this does not appear to be manager Gibbons\u2019 fault as they are just as bad with him in 1 run games as without, but they are trending worse over time.<\/p>\n

New GM Shapiro has just started his tenure. \u00a0 In year one, he went 21-25 in 1 run games. \u00a0The Jays had 2 base stealing threats and he traded 1 for a reliever (Revere) and the other is in the minors (Pompey). \u00a0 If you cannot win close games, making the playoffs is challenging and winning in October is almost impossible. \u00a0This is NOT bad luck, its a failed strategy implemented by JP because he misunderstood the essence of moneyball, and, as of yet, has not been corrected.<\/p>\n

Note: to start 2016, the Blue Jays chose to keep BOTH Goins & Barney on the roster, two backup middle infielders with similar skill sets. \u00a0 Dumping either one for a true stolen base threat would have added more value to the ballclub.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Blue Jays Record in 1 Run Games<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Year<\/td>\nGM<\/td>\nManager<\/td>\nWins<\/td>\nLosses<\/td>\nDifference<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n-9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2004<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2005<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n-15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2006<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2007<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n-8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009<\/td>\nJP<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n-9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n-13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Years<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n<\/td>\n282<\/td>\n350<\/td>\n-68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Dif<\/td>\n-68<\/td>\n<\/td>\nn<\/td>\n632<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avg Annual<\/td>\n-4.86<\/td>\n<\/td>\nwin %<\/td>\n44.62%<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AA<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nJG<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Years<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/td>\nYears<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Dif<\/td>\n-40<\/td>\n<\/td>\nTotal Dif<\/td>\n-28<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avg Annual<\/td>\n-6.67<\/td>\n<\/td>\nAvg Annual<\/td>\n-4.67<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JP<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nxJG<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Years<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/td>\nYears<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Dif<\/td>\n-28<\/td>\n<\/td>\nTotal Dif<\/td>\n-40<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avg Annual<\/td>\n-3.50<\/td>\n<\/td>\nAvg Annual<\/td>\n-5.00<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Overall<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wins<\/td>\nLosses<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
78<\/td>\n84<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
86<\/td>\n76<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67<\/td>\n94<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
80<\/td>\n82<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
87<\/td>\n75<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
83<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
86<\/td>\n76<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
75<\/td>\n87<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
85<\/td>\n77<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
81<\/td>\n81<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
73<\/td>\n89<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
74<\/td>\n88<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
83<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
93<\/td>\n69<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1131<\/td>\n1136<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2+ Run Games<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wins<\/td>\nLosses<\/td>\nDifference<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
55<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n-8<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
72<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>\n72<\/td>\n-22<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
64<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
62<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
61<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n-1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
58<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n-6<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
68<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
78<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
849<\/td>\n786<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
n<\/td>\n1635<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
win %<\/td>\n51.93%<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bill James is WRONG. \u00a0 MLB stats geeks are WRONG. \u00a0 Run differential does NOT always predict baseball success over time. Consensus in MLB right now is that if your run differential is very positive (you score a lot more runs than you give up), you are a strong team that will win long term. …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-value-bets-and-sports-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32\/revisions\/34"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}