{"id":102,"date":"2023-03-15T09:33:57","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T09:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/?p=102"},"modified":"2023-03-17T20:05:38","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T20:05:38","slug":"just-how-awesome-is-rodgers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/just-how-awesome-is-rodgers\/","title":{"rendered":"Just how awesome is Rodgers?"},"content":{"rendered":"

So\u00a0Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season\u00a0<\/a>above replacement.<\/p>\n

To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were\u00a0roughly 50-50\u00a0at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing.\u00a0 \u00a0Then BOOM \u2013 he\u2019s suddenly out with COVID \u2013 nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers.\u00a0 \u00a0Sportsbooks reset the odds at -+300\/-380 meaning you need to risk $380 to win $100 on the Chiefs and you get 3x your money or $300 profit betting on the Packers to win without Rodgers.\u00a0 \u00a0Suddenly without Rodgers, the sportsbooks think that the Packers chances to win drop dramatically to approximately 25% from 50%.\u00a0 Rodgers value is therefore the delta (or change from 50 down to 25), 25% value add.\u00a0 \u00a0.25 x 16 game season = 4 wins.\u00a0 \u00a0Makes sense \u2013 the Packers win about 10 games per year with him and teams that are mediocre average 6 wins.<\/p>\n

Ramifications of Rodgers value to NFL GMs:\u00a0get a stud quarterback at ALL COSTS.\u00a0 \u00a0This seems obvious and it\u2019s hard to predict what stud QB will have 10+ years of staying power, but try to find one and lock him in \u2013 like the Chiefs did with Mahomes.\u00a0 \u00a0Running backs come and go (Ditka\u2019s Saints move with Williams was silly), defensive stars?\u00a0 \u00a0NOTHING compares to these stud QBs \u2013 mortgage the farm in the draft or trade for one if you can \u2013 give up whatever it takes \u2013 most other \u201cstars\u201d are worth 1 win a year, stud QBs are worth 4.<\/p>\n

Are other stars in other sports worth this much?\u00a0 \u00a0Yes!\u00a0 \u00a0Lebron in his prime, or a super NBA stud can move a line 6+ points if suddenly announced out \u2013 this can move the opponent was 50-50 to 75% to beat you.\u00a0 But, in the NBA everyone knows this and that\u2019s why Toronto and LA chased Kawhi around minute by minute \u2013 the gap between superstar and star is wide \u2013 Kyle Lowry was good during the Raps championship run and worth 3-8% win rate, Kawhi was awesome and worth 20-25%.\u00a0 \u00a0The NBA has a silly salary cap \u2013 in a non-cap world, Lebron at his prime could justify $60mil, or more than half a team cap!<\/p>\n

What about a baseball \u201cACE\u201d?\u00a0 \u00a0Yes!\u00a0 \u00a0IF it\u2019s a true ace \u2013 Degrom is worth a ton!\u00a0 \u00a0 If the Mets are 50-50 to win most games, they\u2019d be 40% to win (sportsbook odds) with a backup starter and 70% to win with Degrom.\u00a0 \u00a0 So Degrom is worth 30% above replacement starter per start.\u00a0 \u00a0If he starts 30 times per year that\u2019s 9 wins of value (30% x 30).\u00a0 \u00a0That makes a .500 ballclub a borderline playoff team.\u00a0 \u00a0As an added bonus the \u201cace\u201d pitches closer to 35% of playoff games given off days so he\u2019s even MORE VALUABLE in the post season!<\/p>\n

CAUTION \u2013 this works for real studs \u2013 Rodgers, Lebron in his prime, recent Degrom.\u00a0 \u00a0Do NOT convince yourself your teams best player is a superstud.\u00a0 \u00a0Baker Mayfield, Kyle Lowry, or Hyun Ryu \u2013 they move the line with a sudden absence, but NOTHING close to Rodgers, Lebron, or Degrom \u2013 the best are NOT replaceable, the rest are.<\/p>\n

harley@sharpedgepicks.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So\u00a0Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season\u00a0above replacement. To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were\u00a0roughly 50-50\u00a0at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing.\u00a0 \u00a0Then BOOM \u2013 he\u2019s suddenly out with COVID \u2013 nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers.\u00a0 \u00a0Sportsbooks reset …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-value-bets-and-sports-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":103,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions\/103"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/designsdaddydev.com\/sharpedgepicks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}