There is ONE piece of sport-betting advice that is BEST applicable to NFL fantasy selections – FOCUS ON GAMES WITH HIGH OVER-UNDERS.

If you understand this, you can skip the rest of this article, knowing you have a HUGE EDGE vs your opponents in BOTH season-long AND weekly fantasy.

The explanation.   Here are the NFL game odds.   Each game has an expected total points scored with roughly a 50% chance the game goes over that number and 50% under that number.   IF you take offensive players (QB, WR, RB, TE, and kickers) from a game where 60 points are expected to be scored, you are likely to get A LOT MORE points than selecting players where only 35 points are expected to be scored.

The NFL has a HUGE variation in expected points scored across matchups.   Each week there is a total around 52 and one around 40.  The difference is 30%.   In other words, an avg receiver in the high total game could be expected to score 30% MORE points than an avg receiver in a low total game.   Think 13 fantasy pts per player vs 10 – IT ADDS UP QUICK.

Teams that move the ball quickly, pass a lot, take risks, or have weak Ds all tend to have big over/unders for their games.   Focusing on those teams/games will allow you to create teams with 15-25 additional expected points per week – the difference between the sucker and the shark!

Last modified: March 17, 2023