“Hope springs eternal” (Alexander Pope) Remember this moment! Spring is here after two LONG covid winters. The baseball season starts soon AND the Blue Jays are one of the favourites to win it all. For the first time, lots of casual sports-bettors can place legal wagers with licensed sportsbooks here in Ontario. So…. what are …

One of the tennis majors, the Australian Open, is starting next week. Betting on almost anyone to win it is value. What? How can that be? You better get on this bet quickly! The best tennis player in the world, by far is Novak Djokovic; he is a huge favourite to win the Australian Open …

Bowl season starts this weekend. There are a ton of games and the value is on the big underdogs with the moneyline. What does that mean? Bet big underdogs to upset the favourites and get paid out 3-5x your money when it happens. Below are seven such bets the first weekend. Win any two of …

I’m up 6.7 units of profit @Yardbarker: Ravens +3.5 vs Bengals – LOSS 1.1 units (with VIG) Titans +3.5 vs 49ers – WIN 1 unit Saints +11.5 vs Bucs – WIN 1 unit Went 3-3 betting HUGE bowl dogs for +6 units (3 wins X +300 – 3 X 100 losses) Cardinals -2.5 vs Rams – LOSS 1.1 units (with VIG) Raiders …

I finished the regular season at 7-4 betting the NFL ATS (against the spread) @theparleh Jan 9: Dolphins +6.5 vs Patriots – WIN Dec 19: Giants +10.5 vs Cowboys – LOSS Dec 12: Bills +3.5 vs Tampa – LOSS Dec 5: Chargers +3 vs Bengals – WIN Nov 28: Titans +6.5 vs Patriots – LOSS Nov …

So Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season above replacement. To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were roughly 50-50 at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing.   Then BOOM – he’s suddenly out with COVID – nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers.   Sportsbooks reset …

Rarely can you conduct an experiment to determine value in the real world in real time.   However, we now know EXACTLY the value of Packers Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are at the Chiefs and were a small dog and 49% to win the game.   Then, Rodgers was announced out with COVID.   The game …

Sunday night Kawhi did what every kid dreams about – he hit a buzzer beater in the deciding game so his team could win it.   It is rare.   Kawhi’s buzzer beater was the first in a game 7 in NBA history. However, Toronto sports fans are blessed.   Twice previously in the last 30 years, we’ve …

Adam Silver really put his foot in his mouth when commenting about NBA officiating last spring. http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15737936/2016-nba-playoffs-adam-silver-says-reports-show-referees-90-percent-correct He thought this was a positive spin – refs getting 90% of calls correct is pretty good right?   No!  90% right means 10% wrong and in the NBA with over 1 officiating call per minute, that translates …

Another Sharp Edge Picks article outlines some of the merits of betting baseball: http://sharpedgepicks.com/why-bet-on-baseball/  Namely, a ton of games, reduced vig, and quick turnaround times (allowing sportsbooks to make errors). So why focus on 3-2 moneyline underdogs in baseball?  With OVER 90% of teams winning between 64-97 (40-60%) of their games every year*, getting 3-2 odds …