A boring value bet: NBA road teams getting 2-1 odds on the moneyline in the 1st half of the game.

Explain the bet: you can bet on first halves of games.   The result at halftime is the end of the bet.   When you find a road team getting +200 or more, for the first half, they are usually good value.

Why?   A few reasons:

1: There is NO home court advantage in the 1st half.  IN fact, the opposite.  Refs like looking neutral so they give calls to the road team; it is down the stretch where the home court/crowd causes refs to look like Leslie Nielsen from Naked Gun.

2: Awesome teams play to win championships in June, not crush in the 1st half at home.  They pace themselves and often come on strong in the 3rd or 4th quarter.   Road teams that are almost as good as the home teams often get 2-1 odds in the 1st half because of a home-court that really matters only down the stretch.

3: Usually a team is the favourite in the NBA because its got a super star (think LeBron and the Cavaliers).   Usually Lebron rests in the 2nd quarter, so he is fresh for crunch time.   This means the Cavaliers opponent can possibly take a small lead into the half, with the Cavaliers confident a rested LeBron can step it up in the 2nd half.

4: Teams don’t care about winning the 1st half, so the better team is happy to score a 2 pointer down 3 points with 10 seconds left.   Just keeping it close is often the goal.

Add it all up and getting 2-1 odds is good value.  Why 2-1?  You are drawing the line somewhere and are getting solid value.  Winning only 35% at 2-1 odds translates to a 5% profit margin, higher than professional bettors hope to achieve.

Last modified: March 18, 2023