Rules for Successful Bracket Picking:

1 – check the offshore lines and bet based on this not seeding.   Witchita St is a BIG FAVE as a 10 seed.   It is winning its 1st round game 70%+ of the time in a ‘close’ 7-10 matchup.  Linemakers know WAY MORE than the selection committee.

2 – bet the BIG fave in round 1 to get to the sweet 16 vs the little fave.   Ie, Butler is a 4 seed, but a HUGE fave, while Minnesota who is the 5 seed they’d play in round 2 is a very small fave.   There is a MUCH BETTER chance Butler (85%) gets to round 2 (vs Mini at 52%) so betting them in round 2 makes sense.

3 – use the offshore ‘win tourney’ lines to finish the brackets off.  Gonzaga & Nova’s chances of winning the tourney are CONSIDERABLY LESS then Kansas or North Carolina.  Not all #1s are equal.

Following these 3 simple rules put you in an edge position, leading to better long term bracket results.

Last modified: March 18, 2023